Going into this year's NFL season I feel it is a good time to explain what the differences are between KIP's values, AI predictive modeling picks versus an algorithm (which is what 99% of picking systems or sites do) making picks for you. Let's start with what an algorithm is and does. Basically it is a formula, takes in predetermined data points and plugs in the factors into the formula and shoots out a result. Imagine if you have an algorithm that takes in the points per game for each team and divides them by their opponents points against per game and come up with a simple prediction. That is a simple example, and many algorithms can have many data points however that is where they stop. Now what is the difference between AI predictive modeling? To keep it simple, AI can also start with an algorithm, but where it strays from that original model is that it can analyze the results of that original algorithm and make changes and tweaks to it based on those results. Then to take it further, AI can customize the results and the new algorithm to each team, player and situation based on results. To even take it further, it can identify new factors that it can add to the algorithm that originally were not even there based on new data points that it finds might be correlated. It can do this over and over again and make changes without prejudice and without emotion. Those two words are the key to why people typically lose money betting sports. When it comes to sports, human beings are full of prejudices and emotions. They remember the one time this team beat that team, or they go into games believing that the reputation of a certain team automatically means they will cover. The only way to counter those two limiting thought processes is information. That comes with a very difficult task, as each matchup can come with thousands of data points. It is almost impossible for a person to even receive all the information, let alone sift through it and make decisions based on it. However, for AI that is something that can be accomplished in less than a second. We now know the difference between Algorithms and AI predictions, now let's look at the values KIP puts out. KIP's picks get broken down into four value types, AVOID, LOW, MEDIUM, AND HIGH. At their core, these value categories mean that based on the current lines, and all of the data points KIP has gathered, these bets are a HIGH value, or MEDIUM value, etc... It is for you to develop your own betting system to decide how you will use the information that KIP gives you in regards to your bankroll and goals, but KIP will provide a simple way to manage all that by breaking down each game to which ones are a good idea or bad idea to bet. The value categories also come along with a number, that is usually a positive number and for under bets on totals being a negative number. You can use the absolute value of that number as a multiplier for how much you should bet, or you can use it as a guide to confirm or maybe give pause to what you were already going to bet. If you are going to use it as a multiplier, you could for example bet $5 per value and if you see a value of 9 you would bet $5x9 = $45 on that game, and so on. Finally, why did a bet start at one value and completely switch, or why did a bet completely change from one side or another? The quick answer is because KIP is not an algorithm, as details change, they would change his prediction based on new information. Who is starting, injuries, weather, something the coach has said or a key player on social media, betting trends, etc... All go into factoring KIP's predictions and can change right up to the game. In our opinion, the best time to make your bets is after all the pertinent information is in, and not many days before UNLESS you have your own betting system and just use KIP as a guide to your own system and you identified a line or total you really like for your bet and you want to lock that in. Remember, factors change for each matchup up to game time and so can predictions, it is up to you as to when you want to place your bet, whatever you decide just make it consistent.
Read BlogIn today's world, everything is about artificial intelligence, algorithms, and analytics. I for one am a big proponent of getting computers to manage everything and I trust artificial intelligence wholeheartedly, it is why I spent 10 years developing KIP and work with him every day. AI basically flies our planes, manages our transportation and logistics, and even manipulates users to keep their eyes glued to social media even after knowing they are being spied on and manipulated. AI does the job of thousands of people and in the next ten years, it will take the jobs of millions of people. We can argue whether that is a good thing or a bad thing at another time. What we did witness during the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills game on Sunday is how sometimes you have to think of the human factor and the effect your decisions have on the humans around you and not just look at everything through the lens of analytics or numbers. For those of you who didn't see the game, the time was coming down to the last 2 minutes, and the game was tied 20 to 20 between the Ravens and the Bills. The ravens had the ball with goal to go and couldn't get it into the endzone for a touchdown on the first three tries. So it's fourth down and the coach John Harbaugh (A Superbowl winning and an overall good coach in my opinion), had a choice. He could kick the field goal and take a 23-20 lead and give the ball to Josh Allen and the Bills with time left to try and score against them to win the game, or he could go for it on 4th down and try to make it so if the Bills score they would only tie the game. Essentially it was the choice between trusting his defense to hold the Bills to 3 points or less on this last drive or trying and score to protect what he thinks is a porous defense. Now the analytics in this situation is simple, go for it on 4th down because in this situation and giving the ball to Josh Allen (who many think will win the Superbowl or the MVP this year), has a high probability he will go down and score a touchdown and win, so if you assume that is what will happen no matter what and giving him 4 downs every possession to get a first down on this last drive increases his chances of making it all the way down. So forcing him to score a touchdown seems like the best chance to win. All that makes sense and it might be the best way to go if you are playing chess and there are no people involved. However, what does that decision say to half his team that is not a part of the Lamar Jackson-led offense? Without saying it, Harbaugh is saying that they are pretty much the JV squad on the team and he has zero faith in them. Imagine the alternate scenario, he kicks the field goal and takes the 23-20 lead, then pulls his defense aside and says, "Men, I kicked that field goal because I am counting on you to hold them on this one drive. You have done great this game holding the Bills to 20 points, we just need one more stop". Then at that point, they might lose the game exactly as how the analytics said they will, and if that happens it will be a teaching opportunity and a source of great motivation for the rest of the year for his staff and defense to improve, but they will feel their coach supports them and believes in them. On the other hand, imagine if they held the Bills to no score and they won the game because of the defense stopping one of the best teams in the NFL on the road. It would be an incredible moral victory in addition to an actual victory in the standings. So it was a win-win proposition to kick that field goal, versus what did happen... He went for it on 4th down and missed, so he told his defense he has no faith in them. Then the Bills got the ball, went down the field, and didn't score a touchdown, but did kick an easy field goal. That field goal didn't tie the game like it would have if he had taken the three points earlier, but it won the game for the Bills. So now he took a loss and I believe he might have lost his defense, or at least hurt the morale of at least half his team. The offense has Lamar Jackson, a perennial MVP candidate, and does not need to have gestures of faith in him, he knows he is the most important part of that team and doesn't need to be given the chance to go for it on 4th down to feel his coach believes in him. The maligned defense does need that confidence and they needed to know their coach was on their side for the next 13 games of the season, and that opportunity is now lost. While there is a place in our society for the use of analytics, using numbers solely to make decisions will always lead to making mistakes with people because people have something AI cannot have. Humans don't work just for money, they work for recognition, appreciation, and praise, and before they do all they can and more, they need to know how much their coach cares and believes in them before they care how much their coach knows. Let's hope Harbaugh can give their defense another chance in the coming weeks because I for one would like to see the Ravens get far in the playoffs and to see how Jackson does against Allen or Mahomes in the AFC Championship game.
Read BlogFrom the moment you walk into a casino, you should be aware that everything is planned and thought out as to how to get you to feel like playing. There are actual brain traps designed to push your happy buttons and to go against better judgment. Anything to get you to sit at a machine or table and play and play until you run out of money. If you play a slot machine it is designed to get you to think that the next spin will be the spin that pays off. The lights, the sounds, the location, the gratification your brain gets, and the endorphins it pumps out when you see you got that free spin, ALL made intentionally to get you to stay there and play. It is so effective that giant social media companies have taken those lessons and incorporated them into the design of their apps. Anything to keep you looking at the next video or post or do things to search for likes and get that gratification you get from people seeing or approving whatever you do. They will do anything to keep you looking at your phone, they will build options like jealousy, pain, anger, greed, desire, or anything that can make you feel that FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) sensation. Las Vegas is subtle about it, they are pretty obvious they want you to spend money and forget your life, they even hide clocks in all their casinos so you have no clue what time it is. Of course, you can look at your watch or phone to see, set boundaries for your play, and decide when to stop when you are winning or not, because in the end personal responsibility is everything and you can't blame others for your decisions. However, they will do everything they can to manipulate, influence, and encourage you to LOSE every penny you have, just as social media companies will do ANYTHING to get you to lose your time and spend your money on their targetted advertisements. Las vegas give all their players free drinks and many times free food to keep you in their casino just as social media lets you use their apps for "free", but the price for both is always much larger. Now, most people will say they know all this, yet they will still come to Las Vegas, and they will still go in head first to social media and gambling because that cat has already left the bag a long time ago. This post is about accepting what is going on with your gambling and how to avoid some common pitfalls and traps so you can do better. The first step in fixing mistakes is self-awareness, and admitting "they" (casinos, companies, etc...) are not your friends. They have one purpose and one purpose alone, to make money and you are not the client or customer, you are the prey. The client for Caesars Sportsbook or MGM or Draft Kings, are their shareholders, not you, start with that acceptance and understanding and we can get started. **1. THE GAMBLERS FALLACY** The first pitfall which we have mentioned before is something called "The Gamblers Fallacy", which refers to the idea that a win is DUE because the last event was a loss or a series of losses. This is something that casinos love because it is just not true and the understanding of the odds of betting will help you never fall into this trap. The truth about your chances of winning is that your next bet and the result of that bet are mutually exclusive from your last bet. Whatever the odds are of the next bet paying out are the odds and have nothing to do with the last one. Without accepting this you can never overcome the series of pitfalls waiting for you the next time you place a bet. I have heard many people betting on sports say, "I can't lose them all", or "I can't lose forever". When that is not true, while it is tough to lose (or win) them all, it is possible to lose them all and to lose forever. So what decides whether you win or lose? Usually, many things are out of your control, so it is important to remember what is in your control. You only can control how much you bet, how you bet, and who you bet on. Since those are the only three things you can control, then you should be always focused on doing your best to manage and improve those three things and that is all. **2. TAKE EMOTIONS OUT OF IT** Wait, am I saying you should take the fun out of it? No, absolutely not, if it isn't fun you really shouldn't do it. That is the classic sign that you should stop, the moment it feels like a chore or it is no longer fun that means you might be heading down that rabbit hole and you don't want to go there. When I say to take the emotions out of it, we mean do not get emotional over a win or over a loss, because they can both lead to bad consequences. If you get too emotional over a loss then you really might be betting too much money, so lower your bets to a level that your emotions do not get higher than an annoyance at a loss. If you can stay disciplined with that then you will never find yourself chasing, because chasing is when you start to lose more money than you can handle and start making crazy bets on crazy teams with the hopes of recouping. If you ever catch yourself talking to yourself or god and saying, "if I can just get the money I lost back I will (fill in the blank)", then that is a sign that you are headed for doom. So stop, take a step back, take some time off, regather your strength and focus and try again after some time off. Conversely, most people just don't know when to quit, they feel invincible when they get on a streak and start doing the same thing as losers and start making crazier and crazier bets in anticipation that they will never lose. Follow KIP, or whoever you want, stay disciplined, make money, and have fun, but as you do that, NEVER give it back. Stay calm and keep working the same system that started making you a profit, if you are going to press your bet, start doing it in conjunction with a plan and not just because you feel you are on a roll. As the song goes, you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them, and know when to walk away. The moment you have their money, keep it, save it and accumulate it so your bankroll can grow and you can keep increasing your bets the right way. **3. FAVS AND UNDERSDOGS** It is time to give you all on GFN (Golden F*** Nugget) regarding betting. This is a statistical fact and if you make parlay or teasers please remember this. It is not right 100% of the time but as Meatloaf says 3/4 ain't bad or was it 2/3? Anyways depending on the sport, this one tidbit will be correct over 75 to 80 percent of the time. In spread sports if the underdog covers (or wins) the spread the game will go over the total, and if the favorite does more often than not it will go under. Are there exceptions? Absolutely, and we want to avoid these crazy teams that seem to cover and give up a ton of points or win but never cover and seem to always go under when they do that. Just keep this simple rule in mind when betting one more leg on your parlay or teaser ticket. So if you have a favorite, usually if they cover it is because they are the better team and they dominated the other team, which means the other team didn't score many points. Vice versa, if you feel the underdog is going to cover then that means they might have played above what they usually do and were able to keep up with the better team and not because they stifled the other team's ability to score. It is not 100% but it is a more often than not correlation, so keep that in mind. Additionally, try and avoid betting often on road underdogs. As there is a reason why road teams usually are spotted points, and that is because it is harder to win on the road and if you keep betting on the worse team, and also with the added handicap of being on the road, you will find your results will be 50/50 at best and that is not a good way to make a profit. On the other hand, do not assume that just because a team is better that they will cover HUGE spreads. So try and avoid those massive spreads when the favorite is favored by a lot. Just think about it psychologically for a moment, if you bet for example on Alabama, and for you to win they have to win by 27 points. They are winning by 28 points with 5 minutes left, what motivation do they have to keep all their best player in there and stop the other team, but the other team's coach might be using these last 5 minutes as a learning experience for his team, so many times they still have their best players in there and they are still trying to score. Alabama just wants to take the win and get closer to the national championship without losing any important players to injury and their opponent is trying to score points to not feel like they got blown out as bad as they did. So what happens to your bet when the other team kicks a meaningless field goal at the end or scores a meaningless touchdown? You lose your bet and Alabama still feels like they achieved what they wanted. This leads to the next tip... **4. BET ON TEAMS THAT HAVE SKIN IN THE GAME** No matter what the pros or handicappers tell you, or your gut, or whatever system you might use. Never bet on teams or players that have no skin in the outcome. Motivation is everything in sports, and if one side has to win and the other couldn't care less, I would bet on that team with a vested interest in the final result and I will be right more than 80% of the time. So be aware of the situation and the moment when it comes to betting. A good example of this is Champions League soccer or leagues that play home and away games to decide a winner instead of one game at a neutral site. So often we see in pro Soccer that there is a huge disparity in talent between the squads, and the much better team wins the first leg of a home and away on the road like 4-0, then everyone jumps on them to bet them on the second leg, but they have nothing to gain by winning the next game, they just have to not lose by 4 goals. In that situation, it is very common to see the worse team win 2 to 1 or tie the game because even if they win, they lose. However, they try hard, while the other team is looking forward to the next round and has nothing to gain from really trying hard. So they conserve their energy, or players, or are just plain old lazy, and there is nothing worse than your good money being bet on a team that doesn't care if they win. These are some, although there are more, like knowing when to stop, don't drink and bet. Drink while sweating the game, but never when making a bet, and try to take vacations from betting to relax and reflect, and much more. We will post them periodically, but try to start with these four and you will see your profits increase.
Read BlogI have hesitated to write this post about parlays and teasers because encouraging people to do parlays and teasers is exactly what the books want. Parlays and teasers are far more profitable for the casinos than just straight bets, but like eating fast food, or drinking, we know it is not good for us yet we still do it. If you go to any casino in Las Vegas on Sunday, you will see a line of people waiting to hand in a card that has a parlay with so many legs that their chances of winning the lottery are better. Yet no matter how much we know in our hearts it is crazy to even think of winning that parlay, the idea of betting $5 and turning it into thousands is too enticing. So if you are going to do it, I would like to try and help you do it in a way that might give you some chance of success. Before we get to it we are going to assume the following payouts for parlays (these are not the payouts for non-spread sports), but for simplicity sake here is a list of what you can expect to get paid for different size parlay tickets assuming you have a 50% chance of winning each leg: **PAYOUT CHART** | Legs | Payout Multiplier | What it should be at 50% chance per game | What it should be at 55% chance per game | |------|--------------------|---------------------| | 2 | 2.6x your bet | 3x your bet | 2.3x your bet | | 3 | 6x your bet | 7x your bet | 5x your bet | | 4 | 11x your bet | 15x your bet | 9x your bet | | 5 | 22x your bet | 31x your bet | 18.9x your bet | | 6 | 45x your bet | 63x your bet | 35.1x your bet | | 7 | 90x your bet | 127x your bet | 64.7x your bet | | 8 | 180x your bet | 255x your bet | 118.4x your bet | | 9 | 360x your bet | 511x your bet | 216.1x your bet | | 10 | 720x your bet | 1023x your bet | 393.8x your bet | Do not worry at the moment what this all means, just know this chart is here and we will come back to it to reference it later. However the one quick thing you can take from this is if you have a picking system that can do better than 55% in your correct picks it is possible to make a profit even in parlays. Your spread formula is WHAT YOUR CHANCE IS OF WINNING EACH GAME OF THE PARLAY - THE PARLAY PAYOUT. So according to the chart, on a ten team parlay, if you are correct 50% of the time per game, the actual risk you are taking is 1023 to 1 to win 720 to 1 your bet. That means for every $1 bet on ten team parlays (assuming the players have a 50% chance of winning each pick) the casino is making $303 for every $1000 in bets approximately on parlays while making $100 on the same $1000 bet on straight bets. If none of this makes sense to you, that is okay, odds are hard to understand, just remember two things. As my friend from the movie "The Girl Next Door" would say, in betting (and with your money in general), ask yourself the question, "Is the juice worth the squeeze?". The second thing to remember is that whether you are doing a 2 team parlay or a 10 team parlay, if you do not have a picking system that is right more than 55% of the time, you will always lose. You might have that gambler's selective memory where you remember the time you won and forget all the times you lost, but that 55% is important. Still the risk you take is tremendous for a large parlay in that you have to get them ALL right and the odds of you getting paid anything go down fast as you increase the number of conditions. **What are parlays?** In simple terms, it is one bet, with multiple conditions to win. Every condition has to win for your bet to win and if it does, it pays more than a typical straight bet. For example, imagine you want to bet on the Raiders to beat the Broncos and you think the game is going to score more than the total that they provide. Instead of betting ten dollars on each bet, for a total of twenty dollars you bet ten dollars on one bet that both will happen. If one of the conditions loses, you lose your bet. Lets examine the difference between the two... | Bet1 | Bet 2 | Parlay | | -------- | -------- | -------- | | Raiders | Over on Raiders game | Raiders & Over on the game | | Win $9 | Win $9 | Win 2.6x$10 = $26 | So if you win both bets separately you win $18 and get your bets back for a total return of $38 on your $20 of bets. However if you bet a $10 two team leg(condition) parlay you will win $26 plus your $10 bet, so you will return $36 on your $10 bet. For $10 less you win only $3 less, so you can see why that looks so enticing. Now lets look at the possible outcomes and the odds of that. *Parlay* - You can win or lose. So 2 outcomes: You get returned to you $35 on your $10 OR you lose $10. *Bet 2 Straight bets* - You win both, lose both, or win one and lose the other: So you get $38 returned to you on your $20 OR you lose $20 if both bets lose OR you get $19. However, what if you bet $10 on the first game, cashed that out and bet $10 plus your $9 winnings on the second game. Then if you win you would get $19 plus your winnings of $36,1. So in essense as you can see, a parlay ticket payout is sort of like doing that, rolling over all your winnings from the first game to the second game. It is exactly the same thing as doubling your bet in black jack if you win the first bet. The number of parlay "legs" you have on one ticket is like saying you will keep doubling your blackjack bet when you win that many times. A 6 team parlay is like winning 6 blackjack bets in a row and doubling your bet every time. **And Teasers?** Teasers are available for "spread" sports like basketball and football, which means sports that have a spread. For normal casinos or sportsbooks, they don't really offer Teasers for non-spread sports like baseball, soccer or hockey. So what is a teaser compared to a parlay? They are EXACTLY the same concept except you get a helper to win your bet but you pay a premium in your winnings for that helper. For example, in football, usually the helper is 6 points up to 14 points. The larger the assistance you require for your ticket the smaller the payout. I do not want to get into more math or odds, but lets say again that the casino makes out on these bets, especially since the true odds of your risk do not match the payout of the bet. Here is an example of an actual winning 3 team parlay ticket that one of our users made...  Now if you look the payout it paid $183,35, while a 3 team parlay as you can see from the chart above would payout 6x the $100 bet so they would have been returned a profit of $600 compared to $83.35. The parlay seems like the reward is worth it, but if you look at the ticket more deeply it seems that the ticket as a parlay would have lost because of the upset of the Chiefs losing against the Colts. So on a parlay this player would have just lost $100, but with a 10 point 3 team teaser they had a return of $83,35. This leads to the final point regarding these types of bets, your expectations and risk tolerance are everything, and ultimately (if you read the previous blog posts) your money management. **Expectation and Variance** From the example above, if you have only $100 to bet is it better to have bet $33.33 on each game and won 2 out of 3? Or is it better to have bet the teaser? or parlay? Well we know what the parlay would have paid... $0, and we now your teaser payout $183,35 on that $100. However what if you just didn't bet the parlay or teaser and bet $33.33 on each game. You would have been returned $63.33 on your two wins and lost $33.33 on your other bet for a total of $126.66 or a 26% profit. What if you bet $33,33 on all three games and won all three? Then your return would be $190, only $6.50 more than getting 10 points of help per game on a teaser. How you feel about all this all comes down to the variance and expectations you have with your money. As this blog post is being written in September of 2022, the market and economy in the United States and most of the world is going through a decline. If you asked the average person if they would have liked a 10% return on their money year to date in 2022, they would probably take it as the market has been down much more. So when it comes to our investments we have very low expectations, but when it comes to gambling I think many people will look at this example and say 83.5% return on that 3 team parlay is not much. It isn't as thrilling as winning a $600 parlay ticket, and getting that quick hit. The bottom line, the more you spread out your bets the lower variance you have from the odds, but the lower the payouts and better chance making a small profit regularly (if you have a picking system that is right more than 55% of the time). Teasers help lower variance by giving up profit although they are like parlays in that they are all or nothing, so if you have one game wrong on your ticket you lose the whole thing. However, i think it is obvious you will find that you will win more 3 team teasers than 3 team parlays, the exact amount is complicated but lets say 3 times as often. So lets say you forget the teasers and parlays and just get that 26% rate of return for every 3 bets you do, you would double your money every 3 days. I know getting 6 times your money is much more exciting, but there is nothing fun about losing money and if you have discipline and patience you will find that you can turn $100 into $1000 with the right information, system and decisions, pretty regularly. If doing that isn't sexy, at least now you understand the best path to winning parlays or teasers, is keep the number of legs down, the more legs the more that can go wrong, and I have mentioned it 6 times in this post, and I will say it again. Get a real betting system and score prediction algorithm or plan, no matter where it comes from, it must be better than 55% right. If you have that, you are playing this crazy betting game as the favorite and the only thing that can ruin it is your lack of discipline.
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