NFL 10/04/2022


In today's world, everything is about artificial intelligence, algorithms, and analytics. I for one am a big proponent of getting computers to manage everything and I trust artificial intelligence wholeheartedly, it is why I spent 10 years developing KIP and work with him every day. AI basically flies our planes, manages our transportation and logistics, and even manipulates users to keep their eyes glued to social media even after knowing they are being spied on and manipulated. AI does the job of thousands of people and in the next ten years, it will take the jobs of millions of people. We can argue whether that is a good thing or a bad thing at another time. What we did witness during the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills game on Sunday is how sometimes you have to think of the human factor and the effect your decisions have on the humans around you and not just look at everything through the lens of analytics or numbers. For those of you who didn't see the game, the time was coming down to the last 2 minutes, and the game was tied 20 to 20 between the Ravens and the Bills. The ravens had the ball with goal to go and couldn't get it into the endzone for a touchdown on the first three tries. So it's fourth down and the coach John Harbaugh (A Superbowl winning and an overall good coach in my opinion), had a choice. He could kick the field goal and take a 23-20 lead and give the ball to Josh Allen and the Bills with time left to try and score against them to win the game, or he could go for it on 4th down and try to make it so if the Bills score they would only tie the game. Essentially it was the choice between trusting his defense to hold the Bills to 3 points or less on this last drive or trying and score to protect what he thinks is a porous defense. Now the analytics in this situation is simple, go for it on 4th down because in this situation and giving the ball to Josh Allen (who many think will win the Superbowl or the MVP this year), has a high probability he will go down and score a touchdown and win, so if you assume that is what will happen no matter what and giving him 4 downs every possession to get a first down on this last drive increases his chances of making it all the way down. So forcing him to score a touchdown seems like the best chance to win. All that makes sense and it might be the best way to go if you are playing chess and there are no people involved. However, what does that decision say to half his team that is not a part of the Lamar Jackson-led offense? Without saying it, Harbaugh is saying that they are pretty much the JV squad on the team and he has zero faith in them. Imagine the alternate scenario, he kicks the field goal and takes the 23-20 lead, then pulls his defense aside and says, "Men, I kicked that field goal because I am counting on you to hold them on this one drive. You have done great this game holding the Bills to 20 points, we just need one more stop". Then at that point, they might lose the game exactly as how the analytics said they will, and if that happens it will be a teaching opportunity and a source of great motivation for the rest of the year for his staff and defense to improve, but they will feel their coach supports them and believes in them. On the other hand, imagine if they held the Bills to no score and they won the game because of the defense stopping one of the best teams in the NFL on the road. It would be an incredible moral victory in addition to an actual victory in the standings. So it was a win-win proposition to kick that field goal, versus what did happen... He went for it on 4th down and missed, so he told his defense he has no faith in them. Then the Bills got the ball, went down the field, and didn't score a touchdown, but did kick an easy field goal. That field goal didn't tie the game like it would have if he had taken the three points earlier, but it won the game for the Bills. So now he took a loss and I believe he might have lost his defense, or at least hurt the morale of at least half his team. The offense has Lamar Jackson, a perennial MVP candidate, and does not need to have gestures of faith in him, he knows he is the most important part of that team and doesn't need to be given the chance to go for it on 4th down to feel his coach believes in him. The maligned defense does need that confidence and they needed to know their coach was on their side for the next 13 games of the season, and that opportunity is now lost. While there is a place in our society for the use of analytics, using numbers solely to make decisions will always lead to making mistakes with people because people have something AI cannot have. Humans don't work just for money, they work for recognition, appreciation, and praise, and before they do all they can and more, they need to know how much their coach cares and believes in them before they care how much their coach knows. Let's hope Harbaugh can give their defense another chance in the coming weeks because I for one would like to see the Ravens get far in the playoffs and to see how Jackson does against Allen or Mahomes in the AFC Championship game.

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From the moment you walk into a casino, you should be aware that everything is planned and thought out as to how to get you to feel like playing. There are actual brain traps designed to push your happy buttons and to go against better judgment. Anything to get you to sit at a machine or table and play and play until you run out of money. If you play a slot machine it is designed to get you to think that the next spin will be the spin that pays off. The lights, the sounds, the location, the gratification your brain gets, and the endorphins it pumps out when you see you got that free spin, ALL made intentionally to get you to stay there and play. It is so effective that giant social media companies have taken those lessons and incorporated them into the design of their apps. Anything to keep you looking at the next video or post or do things to search for likes and get that gratification you get from people seeing or approving whatever you do. They will do anything to keep you looking at your phone, they will build options like jealousy, pain, anger, greed, desire, or anything that can make you feel that FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) sensation. Las Vegas is subtle about it, they are pretty obvious they want you to spend money and forget your life, they even hide clocks in all their casinos so you have no clue what time it is. Of course, you can look at your watch or phone to see, set boundaries for your play, and decide when to stop when you are winning or not, because in the end personal responsibility is everything and you can't blame others for your decisions. However, they will do everything they can to manipulate, influence, and encourage you to LOSE every penny you have, just as social media companies will do ANYTHING to get you to lose your time and spend your money on their targetted advertisements. Las vegas give all their players free drinks and many times free food to keep you in their casino just as social media lets you use their apps for "free", but the price for both is always much larger. Now, most people will say they know all this, yet they will still come to Las Vegas, and they will still go in head first to social media and gambling because that cat has already left the bag a long time ago. This post is about accepting what is going on with your gambling and how to avoid some common pitfalls and traps so you can do better. The first step in fixing mistakes is self-awareness, and admitting "they" (casinos, companies, etc...) are not your friends. They have one purpose and one purpose alone, to make money and you are not the client or customer, you are the prey. The client for Caesars Sportsbook or MGM or Draft Kings, are their shareholders, not you, start with that acceptance and understanding and we can get started. **1. THE GAMBLERS FALLACY** The first pitfall which we have mentioned before is something called "The Gamblers Fallacy", which refers to the idea that a win is DUE because the last event was a loss or a series of losses. This is something that casinos love because it is just not true and the understanding of the odds of betting will help you never fall into this trap. The truth about your chances of winning is that your next bet and the result of that bet are mutually exclusive from your last bet. Whatever the odds are of the next bet paying out are the odds and have nothing to do with the last one. Without accepting this you can never overcome the series of pitfalls waiting for you the next time you place a bet. I have heard many people betting on sports say, "I can't lose them all", or "I can't lose forever". When that is not true, while it is tough to lose (or win) them all, it is possible to lose them all and to lose forever. So what decides whether you win or lose? Usually, many things are out of your control, so it is important to remember what is in your control. You only can control how much you bet, how you bet, and who you bet on. Since those are the only three things you can control, then you should be always focused on doing your best to manage and improve those three things and that is all. **2. TAKE EMOTIONS OUT OF IT** Wait, am I saying you should take the fun out of it? No, absolutely not, if it isn't fun you really shouldn't do it. That is the classic sign that you should stop, the moment it feels like a chore or it is no longer fun that means you might be heading down that rabbit hole and you don't want to go there. When I say to take the emotions out of it, we mean do not get emotional over a win or over a loss, because they can both lead to bad consequences. If you get too emotional over a loss then you really might be betting too much money, so lower your bets to a level that your emotions do not get higher than an annoyance at a loss. If you can stay disciplined with that then you will never find yourself chasing, because chasing is when you start to lose more money than you can handle and start making crazy bets on crazy teams with the hopes of recouping. If you ever catch yourself talking to yourself or god and saying, "if I can just get the money I lost back I will (fill in the blank)", then that is a sign that you are headed for doom. So stop, take a step back, take some time off, regather your strength and focus and try again after some time off. Conversely, most people just don't know when to quit, they feel invincible when they get on a streak and start doing the same thing as losers and start making crazier and crazier bets in anticipation that they will never lose. Follow KIP, or whoever you want, stay disciplined, make money, and have fun, but as you do that, NEVER give it back. Stay calm and keep working the same system that started making you a profit, if you are going to press your bet, start doing it in conjunction with a plan and not just because you feel you are on a roll. As the song goes, you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them, and know when to walk away. The moment you have their money, keep it, save it and accumulate it so your bankroll can grow and you can keep increasing your bets the right way. **3. FAVS AND UNDERSDOGS** It is time to give you all on GFN (Golden F*** Nugget) regarding betting. This is a statistical fact and if you make parlay or teasers please remember this. It is not right 100% of the time but as Meatloaf says 3/4 ain't bad or was it 2/3? Anyways depending on the sport, this one tidbit will be correct over 75 to 80 percent of the time. In spread sports if the underdog covers (or wins) the spread the game will go over the total, and if the favorite does more often than not it will go under. Are there exceptions? Absolutely, and we want to avoid these crazy teams that seem to cover and give up a ton of points or win but never cover and seem to always go under when they do that. Just keep this simple rule in mind when betting one more leg on your parlay or teaser ticket. So if you have a favorite, usually if they cover it is because they are the better team and they dominated the other team, which means the other team didn't score many points. Vice versa, if you feel the underdog is going to cover then that means they might have played above what they usually do and were able to keep up with the better team and not because they stifled the other team's ability to score. It is not 100% but it is a more often than not correlation, so keep that in mind. Additionally, try and avoid betting often on road underdogs. As there is a reason why road teams usually are spotted points, and that is because it is harder to win on the road and if you keep betting on the worse team, and also with the added handicap of being on the road, you will find your results will be 50/50 at best and that is not a good way to make a profit. On the other hand, do not assume that just because a team is better that they will cover HUGE spreads. So try and avoid those massive spreads when the favorite is favored by a lot. Just think about it psychologically for a moment, if you bet for example on Alabama, and for you to win they have to win by 27 points. They are winning by 28 points with 5 minutes left, what motivation do they have to keep all their best player in there and stop the other team, but the other team's coach might be using these last 5 minutes as a learning experience for his team, so many times they still have their best players in there and they are still trying to score. Alabama just wants to take the win and get closer to the national championship without losing any important players to injury and their opponent is trying to score points to not feel like they got blown out as bad as they did. So what happens to your bet when the other team kicks a meaningless field goal at the end or scores a meaningless touchdown? You lose your bet and Alabama still feels like they achieved what they wanted. This leads to the next tip... **4. BET ON TEAMS THAT HAVE SKIN IN THE GAME** No matter what the pros or handicappers tell you, or your gut, or whatever system you might use. Never bet on teams or players that have no skin in the outcome. Motivation is everything in sports, and if one side has to win and the other couldn't care less, I would bet on that team with a vested interest in the final result and I will be right more than 80% of the time. So be aware of the situation and the moment when it comes to betting. A good example of this is Champions League soccer or leagues that play home and away games to decide a winner instead of one game at a neutral site. So often we see in pro Soccer that there is a huge disparity in talent between the squads, and the much better team wins the first leg of a home and away on the road like 4-0, then everyone jumps on them to bet them on the second leg, but they have nothing to gain by winning the next game, they just have to not lose by 4 goals. In that situation, it is very common to see the worse team win 2 to 1 or tie the game because even if they win, they lose. However, they try hard, while the other team is looking forward to the next round and has nothing to gain from really trying hard. So they conserve their energy, or players, or are just plain old lazy, and there is nothing worse than your good money being bet on a team that doesn't care if they win. These are some, although there are more, like knowing when to stop, don't drink and bet. Drink while sweating the game, but never when making a bet, and try to take vacations from betting to relax and reflect, and much more. We will post them periodically, but try to start with these four and you will see your profits increase.

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I have hesitated to write this post about parlays and teasers because encouraging people to do parlays and teasers is exactly what the books want. Parlays and teasers are far more profitable for the casinos than just straight bets, but like eating fast food, or drinking, we know it is not good for us yet we still do it. If you go to any casino in Las Vegas on Sunday, you will see a line of people waiting to hand in a card that has a parlay with so many legs that their chances of winning the lottery are better. Yet no matter how much we know in our hearts it is crazy to even think of winning that parlay, the idea of betting $5 and turning it into thousands is too enticing. So if you are going to do it, I would like to try and help you do it in a way that might give you some chance of success. Before we get to it we are going to assume the following payouts for parlays (these are not the payouts for non-spread sports), but for simplicity sake here is a list of what you can expect to get paid for different size parlay tickets assuming you have a 50% chance of winning each leg: **PAYOUT CHART** | Legs | Payout Multiplier | What it should be at 50% chance per game | What it should be at 55% chance per game | |------|--------------------|---------------------| | 2 | 2.6x your bet | 3x your bet | 2.3x your bet | | 3 | 6x your bet | 7x your bet | 5x your bet | | 4 | 11x your bet | 15x your bet | 9x your bet | | 5 | 22x your bet | 31x your bet | 18.9x your bet | | 6 | 45x your bet | 63x your bet | 35.1x your bet | | 7 | 90x your bet | 127x your bet | 64.7x your bet | | 8 | 180x your bet | 255x your bet | 118.4x your bet | | 9 | 360x your bet | 511x your bet | 216.1x your bet | | 10 | 720x your bet | 1023x your bet | 393.8x your bet | Do not worry at the moment what this all means, just know this chart is here and we will come back to it to reference it later. However the one quick thing you can take from this is if you have a picking system that can do better than 55% in your correct picks it is possible to make a profit even in parlays. Your spread formula is WHAT YOUR CHANCE IS OF WINNING EACH GAME OF THE PARLAY - THE PARLAY PAYOUT. So according to the chart, on a ten team parlay, if you are correct 50% of the time per game, the actual risk you are taking is 1023 to 1 to win 720 to 1 your bet. That means for every $1 bet on ten team parlays (assuming the players have a 50% chance of winning each pick) the casino is making $303 for every $1000 in bets approximately on parlays while making $100 on the same $1000 bet on straight bets. If none of this makes sense to you, that is okay, odds are hard to understand, just remember two things. As my friend from the movie "The Girl Next Door" would say, in betting (and with your money in general), ask yourself the question, "Is the juice worth the squeeze?". The second thing to remember is that whether you are doing a 2 team parlay or a 10 team parlay, if you do not have a picking system that is right more than 55% of the time, you will always lose. You might have that gambler's selective memory where you remember the time you won and forget all the times you lost, but that 55% is important. Still the risk you take is tremendous for a large parlay in that you have to get them ALL right and the odds of you getting paid anything go down fast as you increase the number of conditions. **What are parlays?** In simple terms, it is one bet, with multiple conditions to win. Every condition has to win for your bet to win and if it does, it pays more than a typical straight bet. For example, imagine you want to bet on the Raiders to beat the Broncos and you think the game is going to score more than the total that they provide. Instead of betting ten dollars on each bet, for a total of twenty dollars you bet ten dollars on one bet that both will happen. If one of the conditions loses, you lose your bet. Lets examine the difference between the two... | Bet1 | Bet 2 | Parlay | | -------- | -------- | -------- | | Raiders | Over on Raiders game | Raiders & Over on the game | | Win $9 | Win $9 | Win 2.6x$10 = $26 | So if you win both bets separately you win $18 and get your bets back for a total return of $38 on your $20 of bets. However if you bet a $10 two team leg(condition) parlay you will win $26 plus your $10 bet, so you will return $36 on your $10 bet. For $10 less you win only $3 less, so you can see why that looks so enticing. Now lets look at the possible outcomes and the odds of that. *Parlay* - You can win or lose. So 2 outcomes: You get returned to you $35 on your $10 OR you lose $10. *Bet 2 Straight bets* - You win both, lose both, or win one and lose the other: So you get $38 returned to you on your $20 OR you lose $20 if both bets lose OR you get $19. However, what if you bet $10 on the first game, cashed that out and bet $10 plus your $9 winnings on the second game. Then if you win you would get $19 plus your winnings of $36,1. So in essense as you can see, a parlay ticket payout is sort of like doing that, rolling over all your winnings from the first game to the second game. It is exactly the same thing as doubling your bet in black jack if you win the first bet. The number of parlay "legs" you have on one ticket is like saying you will keep doubling your blackjack bet when you win that many times. A 6 team parlay is like winning 6 blackjack bets in a row and doubling your bet every time. **And Teasers?** Teasers are available for "spread" sports like basketball and football, which means sports that have a spread. For normal casinos or sportsbooks, they don't really offer Teasers for non-spread sports like baseball, soccer or hockey. So what is a teaser compared to a parlay? They are EXACTLY the same concept except you get a helper to win your bet but you pay a premium in your winnings for that helper. For example, in football, usually the helper is 6 points up to 14 points. The larger the assistance you require for your ticket the smaller the payout. I do not want to get into more math or odds, but lets say again that the casino makes out on these bets, especially since the true odds of your risk do not match the payout of the bet. Here is an example of an actual winning 3 team parlay ticket that one of our users made... ![](https://ownthespread/public/img/blog/teaser10pt3team.jpg) Now if you look the payout it paid $183,35, while a 3 team parlay as you can see from the chart above would payout 6x the $100 bet so they would have been returned a profit of $600 compared to $83.35. The parlay seems like the reward is worth it, but if you look at the ticket more deeply it seems that the ticket as a parlay would have lost because of the upset of the Chiefs losing against the Colts. So on a parlay this player would have just lost $100, but with a 10 point 3 team teaser they had a return of $83,35. This leads to the final point regarding these types of bets, your expectations and risk tolerance are everything, and ultimately (if you read the previous blog posts) your money management. **Expectation and Variance** From the example above, if you have only $100 to bet is it better to have bet $33.33 on each game and won 2 out of 3? Or is it better to have bet the teaser? or parlay? Well we know what the parlay would have paid... $0, and we now your teaser payout $183,35 on that $100. However what if you just didn't bet the parlay or teaser and bet $33.33 on each game. You would have been returned $63.33 on your two wins and lost $33.33 on your other bet for a total of $126.66 or a 26% profit. What if you bet $33,33 on all three games and won all three? Then your return would be $190, only $6.50 more than getting 10 points of help per game on a teaser. How you feel about all this all comes down to the variance and expectations you have with your money. As this blog post is being written in September of 2022, the market and economy in the United States and most of the world is going through a decline. If you asked the average person if they would have liked a 10% return on their money year to date in 2022, they would probably take it as the market has been down much more. So when it comes to our investments we have very low expectations, but when it comes to gambling I think many people will look at this example and say 83.5% return on that 3 team parlay is not much. It isn't as thrilling as winning a $600 parlay ticket, and getting that quick hit. The bottom line, the more you spread out your bets the lower variance you have from the odds, but the lower the payouts and better chance making a small profit regularly (if you have a picking system that is right more than 55% of the time). Teasers help lower variance by giving up profit although they are like parlays in that they are all or nothing, so if you have one game wrong on your ticket you lose the whole thing. However, i think it is obvious you will find that you will win more 3 team teasers than 3 team parlays, the exact amount is complicated but lets say 3 times as often. So lets say you forget the teasers and parlays and just get that 26% rate of return for every 3 bets you do, you would double your money every 3 days. I know getting 6 times your money is much more exciting, but there is nothing fun about losing money and if you have discipline and patience you will find that you can turn $100 into $1000 with the right information, system and decisions, pretty regularly. If doing that isn't sexy, at least now you understand the best path to winning parlays or teasers, is keep the number of legs down, the more legs the more that can go wrong, and I have mentioned it 6 times in this post, and I will say it again. Get a real betting system and score prediction algorithm or plan, no matter where it comes from, it must be better than 55% right. If you have that, you are playing this crazy betting game as the favorite and the only thing that can ruin it is your lack of discipline.

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Betting can be fun, but winning is always fun. Whether you win $5 or $5000 it doesn’t matter, you have more fun winning than losing. Granted that winning $5000 feels much better, the idea is having more money than you started with prior to engaging in anything is always a good thing. When some people decide that they want to invest money for their future they take the time to research and study and learn more about investing, beta, alpha, taxes, risk and reward, among other things. However the vast majority of people just pass that buck to some investment advisor or salesman. When it comes to gambling, there is nobody to pass the buck to, and if you are going to be spending money (regardless of the amount), you should take a little time to build a foundation of understanding. I will try and keep this simple and not get too much in the weeds as I find that for many people when you get too complicated they start getting that glazed eye look and just tune out the info. To start, there is really one thing you need to remember regarding your bets… You are betting either a favorite or an underdog, and to bet a favorite you have to do it with a handicap, conversely if you bet the underdog you receive an advantage to do so. Betting on sports breaks down to two types of sports, spread-sports and non-spread sports. Spread-sports means a sport that has a spread, meaning that when there is a favorite they usually have to win the game by a certain number of points for you to win your bet. The two biggest spread-sports are American Football and Basketball. With the non-spread sports the team you choose just has to win the game for you to win your bet, like Baseball, Hockey, or Soccer. Spreads and Odds I am aware that for an experienced person this information is very elementary, but this information is meant to introduce the average person to betting that might be intimidated by all the numbers and spreads they might see. One example of the aforementioned spread would be: Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs Miami Dolphins This means if you bet on the Kansas City Chiefs, for you to win your bet the Kansas City Chiefs would have to beat the Miami Dolphins by more than 10 points, and on the other side if you bet the Miami Dolphins, they can win the game or lose by 9 points and you still win your bet. What happens if the Kansas City Chiefs win by 10 points? Then it's called a push, which means you don’t win or lose and your original bet is returned to you. What if you win your bet? How much do you win? That is where odds come into the equation. Usually when you bet on a spread sport the odds of winning is -110 whether you bet the underdog or favorite but what does the -110 mean? -110 simply means for every $110 you bet, you win $100. So in this case, if you bet $110 and win the bet you will be returned to you $210, the $110 you originally bet and the $100 you get for winning. So why -110 and not just $100 for $100, that extra $10 or 10% is what the sportsbook you bet at calls the vig. The vig being what they charge to take your bet and manage the payouts to you. The Sportsbook Imagine now that you are the sportsbook the best scenario for you would be if everyone who bets loses and you get to keep the vig and you get to keep all the money that was bet. If you think about it, that would be great but scary too, because if everyone just bet on one side of a game then you are at risk for losing all that money too. Like lets say everyone bet millions of dollars on the Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10 points and they actually do, now you are on the hook to paying out all that money. Although the first thought of everyone losing is great, it also puts the sportsbook in a very dangerous position, actually a position they are gambling just like their clients, and they don’t want that. What would be the best scenario for a sportsbook? If millions of dollars are bet exactly evenly on Kansas City -10 and on Miami +10, then they have no risk at all and just collect their vig and move on to the next game. Now you understand what the spread is for, it isn’t really what they think the outcome of the game will be (although that has something to do with it), it is the spread that will encourage even amount of betting on both sides, so they have no risk. This is why it is possible if you have a real analytic system to examine the possible outcomes of games and compare them to the spreads you can win more than you lose. If you don’t have one that is where KIP comes in as he analyzes hundreds of viable statistical points of each matchups then simulates the game 500 times and gives the most likely outcome, then groups them into value groups as to which ones are the best value to bet and which ones are the worst. Whatever you do, at least now you understand how the spreads and sportsbooks function. What about non-spread sports? Non-spread sports are tricky, because on the surface it seems so much easier. Just pick the team that will win and when they win you win some money because they don’t have to win by a certain amount. There is still a catch in that, and I can use baseball to explain. Let’s take the New York Yankees, they have a stacked roster, great hitting, pitching and pay lots of money for that team. They win a lot of regular season games, it SEEMS like they win all the time. So it seems like a no-brainer to just bet on them every day and you will make a profit. Seems simple but there is a catch, in non-spread games the sportsbook has different odds payouts than -110. For the Yankees they are often -300 or worse. In that case you would have to bet $300 to win $100, and if you do the math that would mean if you hypothetically bet $100 on them 4 times in a row you would have bet $400. At -300 odds every time they win you win $33.33, so after 4 games if they won all 4 games your profit will be $33.33 x 4 = $133.32. So that means if you just close your eyes and bet the New York Yankees every day they would have to win 4 out of 4 times during those 4 days for you to have a profit of $133.32 on $400 of bets. Imagine they lose once now you would have bet $400 to have returned $399, so you would have lost $1 in that and risked $400. Essentially meaning, the New York Yankees have to win more than 75% of the time for you to make any profit on betting them if you just bet them for the year. In Major League Baseball, they play 162 games in a season so that means at a 75% win rate, they would have to win 122 games out of the 162 games for you to turn a small profit. Just to give you some perspective on that, the Seattle Mariners broke the record of most wins in a season in 2001 by winning 116 games in that season, and the record they broke was held by the Chicago Cubs from 1906. The point is not only do they make the odds for betting the best teams really hard, they set the other teams odds not equal. So for example if the New York Yankees are -300 (you bet $300 to win $100) then you would assume the odds on their opponent would be +300 (which means you bet $100 to win $300), but no they are not. The odds on their opponent would be probably +250 or lower depending on the sportsbook. Why is that? That difference is the VIG that I mentioned above, and if you remember the sportsbook wants people to bet on both sides. The only difference is the amount they want to bet on both sides, but the idea is the same. Risk and Reward Betting is all about risk and reward for you and the sportsbook. The sportsbook will give odds to proliferate your interest in betting and they will move the odds if they see too much money is coming in on one side or the other, that is why odds or spreads move. The best way for you to handle odds and spreads is to understand them, develop a system, manage your bankroll and develop a system for finding arbitrage in the real outcomes versus the odds. If you don’t have time for that on your own, no problem, you can always let KIP do all that for you and you just follow his simple color coated system and enjoy the games knowing that you at least are betting correctly and at the right times, and on the right games.

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